1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	292900	Squaring Circleville	Current	156	7.02	5.63	3.18
			Estimated	300	7.26	5.75	2.93

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Established in 1810, Circleville, Ohio derives its name from the circular portion of a large Hopewell earthwork upon which it was built. The Circleville earthworks, as described in 1772, comprised an 1,100-foot diameter circle connected to a 900-foot square. Town director Daniel Dreisbach plotted the town directly atop the earthworks, integrating the town plan into the landscape. An octagonal courthouse stood directly in the center of the circular road system in the center of town. To the dismay of Dreisbach, however, the people of Circleville hated the circular roads. People complained that the round roads forced everyone to build on oddly-shaped lots and caused confusion. By the mid-1830s, enough dissatisfaction arose with Circleville's unique radial concentric road layout that the townsfolk petitioned the State Assembly to change it. The Circleville Squaring Company, authorized in 1837, undertook a project to convert the "peculiar" town plan into a more conventional grid. Circleville occupies a unique place in the history of American town planning as one of the earliest examples of urban redevelopment in the United States. In Squaring Circleville, you work for the Circleville Squaring Company to manage the process of deconstructing and reconstructing the town of Circleville. You will move around the courthouse rondel getting permits to perform work, such as deconstructing and constructing roads and demolishing and building structures. As the game proceeds, you become more experienced and are able to do an amazing amount of work in the same amount of time. In the end, only one player will be recognized as the best at "squaring the circle" and wins. —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/292900

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Squaring Circleville? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Squaring Circleville. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Squaring Circleville. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	292900	Squaring Circleville	1.00	5.63	7.02	2.93	156
1	1970	8434	Extinction: The Game Of Ecology	0.88	5.52	6.80	2.00	30
2	2018	257067	Magnastorm	0.85	5.92	6.81	3.07	868
3	2012	43231	Balance of Power	0.85	5.49	5.51	1.80	116
4	2004	8121	Stargate SG-1	0.84	5.44	4.51	1.92	106
5	1990	5723	Shattered States	0.83	5.53	6.56	2.29	47
6	2001	3538	Gnome Tribes	0.83	5.47	4.18	1.50	46
7	1992	4843	Give Me Liberty	0.82	5.51	5.86	3.54	54
8	2017	212042	Gnomes and Associates	0.82	5.50	6.82	1.67	34
9	2007	29934	Amyitis	0.82	6.40	6.92	3.22	3,038
10	1995	10256	Thirty Years War: the Great War 1618-1648	0.81	5.51	5.97	2.83	63
11	1982	4794	Soldier King	0.81	5.53	5.98	2.17	120
12	2005	15045	Risk: Star Wars – Clone Wars Edition	0.81	5.69	6.01	2.21	1,614
13	2013	143782	Global Mogul	0.80	5.67	6.97	3.40	235
14	2004	9342	Fifth Avenue	0.80	5.67	5.99	2.65	949
15	1989	3403	Rise and Fall	0.80	5.57	6.57	2.38	138
16	1999	375	6 Billion	0.80	5.48	5.34	2.69	141
17	2010	42052	Vinhos	0.80	6.92	7.48	4.21	4,636
18	2008	31554	Red Dragon Rising: The Coming War With China	0.80	5.61	7.12	2.89	133
19	2014	160495	ZhanGuo	0.80	6.80	7.57	3.83	3,029
20	2012	109077	Iron Sky: The Board Game	0.79	5.53	6.10	2.57	113
21	2010	69815	Arnhem '44: The Operation Market Garden Boardgame	0.79	5.53	7.11	2.88	35
22	2015	154809	Nippon	0.79	7.06	7.67	3.78	4,547
23	2020	300944	Gates of Mara	0.79	5.55	7.17	3.00	61
24	1996	10236	Byzantium	0.79	5.53	6.53	3.09	59
25	1995	582	Kampf um Rom	0.79	5.50	5.52	3.20	37

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Squaring Circleville while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	292900	Squaring Circleville	5.63	1.00	5.63	7.02	2.93	156
1	2015	154809	Nippon	5.57	0.79	7.06	7.67	3.78	4,547
2	2010	42052	Vinhos	5.52	0.80	6.92	7.48	4.21	4,636
3	2014	160495	ZhanGuo	5.41	0.80	6.80	7.57	3.83	3,029
4	2013	144733	Russian Railroads	5.39	0.72	7.52	7.76	3.41	16,244
5	2016	175640	Vinhos Deluxe Edition	5.25	0.70	7.47	8.16	4.06	5,221
6	2007	29934	Amyitis	5.24	0.82	6.40	6.92	3.22	3,038
7	2007	22545	Age of Empires III: The Age of Discovery	5.18	0.72	7.20	7.53	3.13	10,013
8	2018	257067	Magnastorm	5.05	0.85	5.92	6.81	3.07	868
9	2019	269511	Cooper Island	4.89	0.71	6.85	7.66	4.18	3,005
10	1970	8434	Extinction: The Game Of Ecology	4.89	0.88	5.52	6.80	2.00	30
11	2015	172385	Porta Nigra	4.81	0.75	6.43	7.18	2.99	2,136
12	1999	60	Vinci	4.67	0.71	6.58	7.07	2.78	3,992
13	2012	43231	Balance of Power	4.67	0.85	5.49	5.51	1.80	116
14	2015	130486	Small City	4.65	0.77	6.01	7.48	4.02	594
15	1990	5723	Shattered States	4.61	0.83	5.53	6.56	2.29	47
16	2009	30658	Rise of Empires	4.60	0.73	6.32	7.03	3.55	2,049
17	2005	15045	Risk: Star Wars – Clone Wars Edition	4.60	0.81	5.69	6.01	2.21	1,614
18	2004	8121	Stargate SG-1	4.58	0.84	5.44	4.51	1.92	106
19	2017	230085	Agra	4.57	0.70	6.51	7.35	4.35	2,197
20	2013	143782	Global Mogul	4.56	0.80	5.67	6.97	3.40	235
21	2004	9342	Fifth Avenue	4.55	0.80	5.67	5.99	2.65	949
22	2015	153737	Ships	4.54	0.75	6.01	6.85	3.51	1,081
23	1992	4843	Give Me Liberty	4.54	0.82	5.51	5.86	3.54	54
24	2019	228959	Alubari: A Nice Cup of Tea	4.53	0.74	6.13	7.27	3.08	985
25	2001	3538	Gnome Tribes	4.52	0.83	5.47	4.18	1.50	46

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	292900	Squaring Circleville	Spielworxx	Matt Wolfe	Harald Lieske	City Building	Organizations: Game Designers of North Carolina	Area Majority / Influence
							States: Ohio	Rondel

Individual Game Analysis